Tag: eieio

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new conference paper: Ebb and Flow: Implications of ISP Address Dynamics

Our new paper “Ebb and Flow: Implications of ISP Address Dynamics” will appear at the 2024 Conference on Passive and Active Measurements (PAM 2024).

From the abstract:

[Baltra24a, figure 1]: A known ISP maintenance event, where we see users (green dots) ove from the left block to the right block for about 15 days. The bottom graphs show what addresses respond, as observed by Trinocular. We confirm this result from a RIPE Atlas probe that also moved over this time. This kind of event is detected by the ISP Availability Sensing (IAS), a new algorithm explored in this paper.

Address dynamics are changes in IP address occupation as users come and go, ISPs renumber them for privacy or for routing maintenance. Address dynamics affect address reputation services, IP geolocation, network measurement, and outage detection, with implications of Internet governance, e-commerce, and science. While prior work has identified diurnal trends in address use, we show the effectiveness of Multi-Seasonal-Trend using Loess decomposition to identify both daily and weekly trends. We use ISP-wide dynamics to develop IAS, a new algorithm that is the first to automatically detect ISP maintenance events that move users in the address space. We show that 20% of such events result in /24 IPv4 address blocks that become unused for days or more, and correcting nearly 41k false outages per quarter. Our analysis provides a new understanding about ISP address use: while only about 2.8% of ASes (1,730) are diurnal, some diurnal ASes show more than 20% changes each day. It also shows greater fragmentation in IPv4 address use compared to IPv6.

This paper is a joint work of Guillermo Baltra, Xiao Song, and John Heidemann. Datasets from this paper can be found at https://ant.isi.edu/datasets/outage. This work was supported by NSF (MINCEQ, NSF 2028279; EIEIO CNS-2007106.

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congratulations to Guillermo Baltra for his PhD

I would like to congratulate Dr. Guillermo Baltra for defending his PhD at the University of Southern California in August 2023 and completing his doctoral dissertation “Improving network reliability using a formal definition of the Internet core”.

Guillermo Baltra (right) and his thesis advisor.

From the abstract:

After 50 years, the Internet is still defined as “a collection of interconnected networks”. Yet seamless, universal connectivity is challenged in several ways. Political pressure threatens fragmentation due to de-peering; architectural changes such as carrier-grade NAT, the cloud makes connectivity indirect; firewalls impede connectivity; and operational problems and commercial disputes all challenge the idea of a single set of “interconnected networks”. We propose that a new, conceptual definition of the Internet core helps disambiguate questions in analysis of network reliability and address space usage.


We prove this statement through three studies. First, we improve coverage of outage detection by dealing with sparse sections of the Internet, increasing from a nominal 67% responsive /24 blocks coverage to 96% of the responsive Internet. Second, we provide a new definition of the Internet core, and use it to resolve partial reachability ambiguities. We show that the Internet today has peninsulas of persistent, partial connectivity, and that some outages cause islands where the Internet at the site is up, but partitioned from the main Internet. Finally, we use our definition to identify ISP trends, with applications to policy and improving outage detection accuracy. We show how these studies together thoroughly prove our thesis statement. We provide a new conceptual definition of “the Internet core” in our second study about partial reachability. We use our definition in our first and second studies to disambiguate questions about network reliability and in our third study, to ISP address space usage dynamics.

Guillermo’s PhD work was supported by NSF grants CNS-1806785, CNS-2007106 and NSF-2028279 and DH S&T Cyber Security Division contract 70RSAT18CB0000014 and a DHS contract administred by AFRL as contract FA8750-18-2-0280, to USC Viterbi, the Armada de Chile, and the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo de Chile (ANID).

Please see his individual publications for what data is available from his research; his results are also in use in ongoing Trinocular outage detection datasets.

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new poster “Internet Outage Detection Using Passive Analysis” at ACM IMC 2022

Asma Enayet will present her poster “Internet Outage Detection Using Passive Analysis” by Asma Enayet and John Heidemann at ACM Internet Measurement Conference, Nice, France from October 25-27th, 2022.

We expect the ACM poster abstract (without the poster) to appear at https://doi.org/10.1145/3517745.3563032 in October 2022.

We are making a report available now with the poster abstract and poster at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2209.13767 as a pre-print.

From the abstract:

Outages from natural disasters, political events, software or hardware issues, and human error place a huge cost on e-commerce ($66k per minute at Amazon). While several existing systems detect Internet outages, these systems are often too inflexible, with fixed parameters across the whole internet with CUSUM-like change detection. We instead propose a system using passive data, to cover both IPv4 and IPv6, customizing parameters for each block to optimize the performance of our Bayesian inference model. Our poster describes our three contributions: First, we show how customizing parameters allows us often to detect outages that are at both fine timescales (5 minutes) and fine spatial resolutions (/24 IPv4 and /48 IPv6 blocks). Our second contribution is to show that, by tuning parameters differently for different blocks, we can scale back temporal precision to cover more challenging blocks. Finally, we show our approach extends to IPv6 and provides the first reports of IPv6 outages.

IPv6 Coverage: our source of passive data (B-Root) is incomplete, but it provides similar coverage in both IPv4 and IPv6.
IPv6 Outages: Outage rate for IPv6 (12%) is greater than for IPv4 (5.5%) —IPv6 reliability can improve.

This work was supported by NSF grant CNS-2007106 (EIEIO).

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Large Canadian Internet Outage

News reports (for example, at the Verge and Slashdot) mention a large outage in Rogers, a major Canadian telecommunications provider.

We see lots of evidence for this in our Internet outage detection system.

It’s big! Maybe 30% of Toronto and southern Ontario networks, plus a lot of outages in New Brunswick.

Ontario:

Internet outages in Ontario, Canada. The largest circle represents about 6500 /24 network blocks down near Toronto, about 30% of the /24 blocks in that area. See details on our outage website.

New Brunswick:

Internet outages in New Brunswick, Canada. The largest circle here represents 196 /24 network blocks down near Moncton, more than 45% of the /24 blocks there. The red circles are areas where most or all network blocks are currently out. See details on our outage website.

An update: Newfoundland also sees a lot of outages. Quebec looks in pretty good shape, though.

And it’s lasting a long time. It looks like it started at 5am Eastern time (2022-07-08t09:00Z), it it has lasted 9.5 hours so far!

We wish Rogers personnel and our Canadian neighbors the best.

Update at 2022-07-09t06:15Z (2:15am Eastern time): Toronto is doing much better, with “only” 10% of blocks unreachable (22808 of 21.5k in the 43.8N,79.3W 0.5 grid cell). New Brunswick and Newfoundland still look the same, with outages in about 50% of blocks.

Update at 2022-07-09t21:10Z (5:10pm Eastern time): It looks like many Rogers networks recovered at 2022-07-09t05:15Z (1:15am Eastern time). This includes all of New Brunswick and Newfoundland and most of Ontario. Trinocular has about a one-hour delay while it computes results, so I did not see this result when I checked in the prior update–I needed to wait 15 minutes more.

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network outages in Louisiana with Hurricane Ida

We’ve been watching the situation in Louisiana develop with Hurricane Ida with our Trinocular Internet outage detection system.

Internet outages in Louisiana at 8:30pm Sunday evening August 29, corresponding to Hurricane Ida’s landfall.

Data as of 2021-08-30t01:30Z, which is 8:30pm Sunday night August 29 in New Orleans, shows about half of the networks in the New Orleans area being unreachable (mostly IPv4 home networks). Following shortly after landfall, these outages correspond with news reports about widespread power loss. Current data is appearing on our Internet outage map.

We wish the residents of Louisiana the best and hope for a rapid recovery.

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new talk “Observing the Global IPv4 Internet: What IP Addresses Show” as an SKC Science and Technology Webinar

John Heidemann gave the talk “Observing the Global IPv4 Internet: What IP Addresses Show” at the SKC Science and Technology Webinar, hosted by Deepankar Medhi (U. Missouri-Kansas City and NSF) on June 18, 2021.  A video of the talk is on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A_gFXi2WeY. Slides are available at https://www.isi.edu/~johnh/PAPERS/Heidemann21a.pdf.

From the abstract:Covid and non-Covid network changes in India; part of a talk about measuring the IPv4 Internet.

Since 2014 the ANT lab at USC has been observing the visible IPv4 Internet (currently 5 million networks measured every 11 minutes) to detect network outages. This talk explores how we use this large-scale, active measurement to estimate Internet reliability and understand the effects of real-world events such as hurricanes. We have recently developed new algorithms to identify Covid-19-related Work-from-Home and other Internet shutdowns in this data. Our Internet outage work is joint work of John Heidemann, Lin Quan, Yuri Pradkin, Guillermo Baltra, Xiao Song, and Asma Enayet with contributions from Ryan Bogutz, Dominik Staros, Abdulla Alwabel, and Aqib Nisar.

This project is joint work of a number of people listed in the abstract above, and is supported by NSF 2028279 (MINCEQ) and CNS-2007106 (EIEIO). All data from this paper is available at no cost to researchers.